As we all know, “golden nine and silver ten” is the traditional peak season of automobile sales, but the phenomenon of “core shortage” caused by the spread of overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate. Many automobile giants around the world are forced to reduce production or stop production briefly from August to September. New energy “Rookies” have also adjusted their sales expectations for the third quarter, which makes the transaction volume of 4S stores and car dealers decline during the “golden nine” period and “no cars can be sold” It seems to be the new normal of some dealers and car dealers.
Upstream: Auto chips rose the most outrageous
In fact, cars, consumer electronics, medical treatment, LEDS and even toys are now 360 lines, and there is a lack of chips. The reason why “automobile lack of core” ranks first is that automobile chips have risen the most outrageous.
Judging from the time line, by the influence of COVID-19, only in the first quarter of 2020, hundreds of automobile factories were suspended due to closed management, shortage of parts and lack of jobs. In the second half of the year, the global auto market unexpectedly recovered, and the sales of various brands rebounded, but the main production capacity of upstream chip manufacturers has been put into other industries. So far, the topic of “vehicle specification chip shortage” detonated the whole industry for the first time.
In terms of specific types, from 2020 to 2021q1, the chips seriously out of stock are MCU applied in ESP (body electronic stability system) and ECU (electronic control unit) systems. Among them, the main ESP suppliers are Bosch, ZF, Continental, Autoliv, Hitachi, Nisin, Wandu, Aisin, etc.
However, since 2021q2, the covid-19 pandemic in Malaysia, the packaging and testing plants of large international multinational chip companies in the country have been forced to close due to the epidemic, and the global shortage of automotive chip supply has continued to worsen. Nowadays, the shortage of automotive chips has spread from MCU in ESP / ECU to millimeter wave radar, sensors and other special chips.
From the spot market, the data released by the State Administration of market supervision and administration show that under the condition of balanced supply and demand, the price increase rate of automobile chip traders is generally 7% – 10%. However, due to the overall shortage of chips, many automobile chips in circulation in Huaqiang North market increased by more than 10 times during the year.
In this regard, the state finally took the political market chaos! It was reported in early September that three automobile chip distribution enterprises were fined a total of 2.5 million yuan by the State Administration of market supervision and administration due to driving up the price of automobile chips. It is reported that the above distribution enterprises will sell chips with a purchase price of less than 10 yuan at a high price of more than 400 yuan, with a maximum price increase of 40 times.
So when can the shortage of vehicle specification chip be alleviated? The industry consensus is that it is difficult to solve it completely in a short time.
The China Automobile Industry Association said in August that the global chip shortage caused by automobile manufacturers to reduce production is unlikely to be solved soon because the epidemic continues to rage in many parts of the world.
According to the prediction of Ihsmarkit, the impact of chip shortage on automobile production will continue until the first quarter of 2022, and the supply may be stable in the second quarter of 2022, and begin to recover in the second half of 2022.
Infineon CEO Reinhard Ploss said that due to the high cost pressure of semiconductor manufacturers and still high demand, chip prices are expected to rise sharply. From 2023 to 2024, the semiconductor market may peak, and the problem of oversupply will also emerge.
The head of Volkswagen’s Americas business believes that U.S. auto production will not return to normal until the second half of 2022.
Midstream: “strong man’s broken arm” to deal with the impact of missing core
Under the impact of the continuous shortage of chip supply, many car companies have to “break their arms” to survive – the best choice is to give priority to the supply of key models, especially the recently listed new cars and hot-selling new energy vehicles. If it doesn’t help, it will temporarily reduce production and stop production. After all, “living is more important than anything”.
(1) Traditional car enterprises, normal production has been “fully urgent”. According to incomplete statistics, from August to September, the automobile enterprises that announced short-term production reduction and shutdown include:
Honda announced on September 17 that it is expected that the automobile output of its factories in Japan from August to September will be 60% lower than the original plan, and the output will be reduced by about 30% in early October.
Toyota announced in August that its 14 factories in Japan would stop production in varying degrees due to chip shortage in August and September, with a maximum shutdown time of 11 days. It is expected that Toyota’s global auto production will decrease by 330000 in October, accounting for 40% of the original production plan.
Subaru also announced that the shutdown time of this factory and Yadao factory of Gunma production Institute (Taitian City, Gunma county) will be extended to September 22.
In addition, Suzuki will stop production at Hamamatsu factory (Hamamatsu City) on September 20.
In addition to Japan, automobile enterprises in the United States, Germany and other countries have also stopped production or reduced production.
On September 2 local time, General Motors announced that 8 of its 15 North American assembly plants would suspend production in the next two weeks due to a shortage of chips, AP reported.
In addition, Ford Motor Company also announced that it would suspend the production of pickup trucks at the assembly plant in Kansas City in the next two weeks, and the two truck factories in Michigan and Kentucky would cut their shifts.
Skoda and seat, subsidiaries of Volkswagen, both issued statements saying that their factories would stop production due to a shortage of chips. Among them, Skoda Czech factory will stop production for one week at the end of September; The shutdown time of SIAT’S Spanish plant will be extended to 2022.
(2) New energy vehicles, “lack of core” storm has hit.
Although the problem of “car core shortage” is prominent, the sales of new energy vehicles are still hot in recent years and are frequently favored by capital.
According to the monthly data of China Automobile Industry Association, China’s automobile sales in August were 1.799 million, down 3.5% month on month and 17.8% year-on-year. However, China’s new energy vehicle market still outperformed the market, and the production and sales continued to grow month on month and year-on-year. The production and sales volume exceeded 300000 for the first time, reaching a new record.
Surprisingly, the “face beating” came so fast.
On September 20, ideal automobile announced that due to the popularity of covid-19 in Malaysia, the production of special chips for millimeter wave radar suppliers of the company was seriously hindered. Because the recovery rate of chip supply is lower than expected, the company now expects about 24500 vehicles to be delivered in the third quarter of 2021, compared with 25000 to 26000 vehicles previously predicted.
In fact, Weilai automobile, another leading company among new domestic car manufacturers, also said in early September that due to the uncertainty and volatility of semiconductor supply, it is now lowering its delivery forecast for the third quarter of this year. According to its prediction, the vehicle delivery in the third quarter of this year will reach about 225000 to 235000, lower than the previous expectation of 230000 to 250000.
It is reported that ideal automobile, Weilai automobile and Xiaopeng automobile are three leading electric vehicle start-ups in China, competing with Tesla, an American electric vehicle manufacturer, and local companies such as Geely and Great Wall Motors.
Now ideal automobile and Weilai automobile both lowered their Q3 delivery expectations, indicating that the situation of new energy vehicles is not better than that of their peers. For vehicle production capacity, the epidemic is still a huge risk factor.
It is observed that many European and American governments have come forward to communicate with Malaysia, hoping that Malaysia can give priority to the supply of vehicle chips to its own vehicle enterprises. Senior officials of Chinese auto enterprises have publicly called for the state to coordinate this issue.
Downstream: the garage is “empty” and the dealer “has no cars to sell”
“Core shortage” has led to the reduction of production and shipment of midstream manufacturers, resulting in a serious shortage of inventory of downstream marketing enterprises, and has triggered some chain reactions in the global automobile market.
The first is the decline in sales. According to the data of China Automobile Circulation Association, affected by the shortage of automobile chips, the retail sales of China’s passenger car market reached 1453000 in August 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% and a month on month decrease of 3.3% in August.
According to the data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers on September 16, the registration of new cars in Europe decreased by 24% and 18% year-on-year respectively in July and August this year, which is the two months with the largest decline since the end of the euro zone economic crisis in 2013.
Secondly, the dealer garage is “empty”. According to domestic media reports, some dealers reported that since the end of July, there has been a general supply shortage of popular models in the dealer DMS system, and since the third quarter, many vehicle orders have still been sporadic supply of some vehicles, and some vehicles have no existing vehicles.
In addition, the inventory and sales time of some dealers has been reduced to about 20 days, which is seriously lower than the health value recognized in the industry for 45 days. This means that if this situation continues, it will seriously threaten the daily operation of dealers.
Subsequently, there was a phenomenon of price increase in the car market. The general manager of a 4S store in Beijing said that due to the shortage of chips, the production volume is small now, and some cars also need orders. There is not much stock in stock, with an average increase of 20000 yuan.
It happens that there is a similar case. In the U.S. auto market, due to insufficient vehicle supply, the average selling price of U.S. cars exceeded $41000 in August, a record high.
Finally, there is a phenomenon that luxury car brand dealers buy back used cars at the invoice price. It is reported that at present, some 4S stores of luxury car enterprises in Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan and other regions have launched the activity of recycling used cars at ticket prices.
It is understood that the high price recycling of second-hand cars is only the behavior of some luxury car dealers. Some luxury car dealers with relatively sufficient car sources and preferential new car prices did not participate. A luxury brand dealer said that before the chip shortage, many models of luxury brands had discounts on terminal prices. “The car concession price in the previous two years was more than 15 points. We collected it according to the invoice price and sold it at the guidance price of new cars, with a profit of more than 10000.”
The above dealers said that dealers face certain risks in recycling used cars at high prices. If there are a large number of cars and the output of new cars increases in the short term, the sales of used cars will be affected. If it can’t be sold, the used cars recovered at a high price will be sold at a lower price.
Post time: Sep-23-2021